Andddddd we’re back.
After a week off, the boys are back for the Mayakoba Classic – and the field is solid.
Justin Thomas returns to Mayakoba for the first time since 2014. He’s coming off a solid performance at the Masters, and will look to add another trophy to his display case before taking a few weeks off until the calendar flips to 2021. 4-time Major champion Brooks Koepka is also making the trip to Mexico, and will make his first start at this event since 2013. Other big names in the field include Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Marc Leishman.
The Course
El Camaleon Golf Club will play right around 7,000 yards for the week – Par 71.
Paspalum Greens. (Very unique, usually play a bit slower, and won’t be the smoothest surfaces – making SG: Putting not as important as usual)
Data Golf Closest Course Comparison: Sedgefield Country Club, home of the Wyndham Championship.
Course is pretty easy for the TOUR pros. The winning score has been -20 or deeper 3 of the past 4 years.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach. These green complexes aren’t only huge, but the angulations are minimal. That’s a recipe for going right at the pins, so iron play will be critical. Russell Henley time?
Driving Accuracy: The course is short, so bombers will have to use a more conservative strategy. The past two winners showcase the driver precision needed to win here – Brendon Todd and Kuch.
Greens in Regulation. Birdies are needed. Lots of ’em. Trying to keep up with the low scores by getting up & down all week will not work. Need as many birdie bids as possible.
Betting Odds
No surprise here, but Justin Thomas enters the week as the outright favorite at +650. He comes into the week in good form, finishing solo 4th at the Masters. JT is one of the best iron players on TOUR, and in his last 24 rounds on Paspalum greens, he has gained a total of 48.4 strokes (which leads this field). Data Golf is also giving Justin the highest chance of winning – 11.7% (next highest being Abraham Ancer at 5.5%).
Bets
Top 20 – Corey Conners (+150). To put it frank, he’s on fire. His last 4 starts: T8, T24, T10, T10 (Masters). He led the TOUR in ball-striking in 2020, but hasn’t had much luck at this event (MC in 2018). I’ll take his recent form over history.
Top 20 – Carlos Ortiz (+250). Carlos is coming off his first PGA TOUR victory at the Houston Open just a few weeks ago. On top of that, he finished T2 at this event last year. He’s a Mexico native, making the storyline for a victory here, perfect.
Top 10 – Harris English (+175). His last 3 starts: 10th, T28, T6. Last year he finished solo 5th at this event, giving him solid recent form and history – usually a recipe for success.
Top 20 – Wesley Bryan (+800). This is a value play. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 3rd in the field this week in SG: Approach. The putter isn’t a consistent part of his game, but with the Paspalum greens, that won’t matter as much.
Outright Winner
Abraham Ancer (+2200) – Like I said with Carlos Ortiz, the storyline for an Ancer win here is perfect. The Mexico native was in the final group at the Masters a few weeks ago, and finished T8 here last year. A T21 in 2018 gives him a track record at Mayakoba to be confident in, and according to Data Golf, is +1.24 on the trending index. A solo 4th at the Shriners can be added to the list of his recent finishes.
Russell Henley (+2200) – In this field, he leads all players in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds (+25.8). After T3, T4 finishes at the CJ and ZOZO, Russ has cooled off a bit. His last 2 starts have been a T29 in Houston, and T30 at the RSM. Despite recent form, he’s still +2.04 on the trending index on Data Golf. He missed the cut last year, but posted a Top 30 finish in 2018.
Harold Varner III (+7000) – Value pick. He’s going through a very interesting stretch, his last 4 starts: T13, MC, T15, MC. So by this logic, he’ll have a good outing this week. In 2018, HV3 finished T6, 5 strokes behind the winner. You can get him at +275 for a Top 20 finish if that sounds more appealing to you.
Cover via Instagram
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