And here, we, go…
It’s time to make some money again. After a few weeks off, the PGA TOUR is back in Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The usual small field has been expanded due to schedule changes, and top players in the FedEx from 2019-20 have also been invited.
Justin Thomas is returning to Kapalua as the defending champion, but he isn’t the betting favorite (+800). That honor goes to the man with a brand new green jacket in his closet, as DJ sits at (+650).
Field
Joining JT and Dustin in the field are PGA TOUR winners from last season Jon Rahm (Memorial, BMW), Patrick Cantlay (ZOZO), Daniel Berger (Charles Schwab), and Bryson DeChambeau (US Open, Rocket Mortgage).
From the FedEx Cup Standings, Kevin Kisner, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Abraham Ancer are just a few of the guys rounding out the field.
Course
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73
Just over 7,500 yards
The greens are large, but they’re very angulating. Instead of players firing at pins, they’re going to need to use the slopes to get tight.
Key Stats
SG: Off The Tee. With all the elevation change and sloping fairways, both distance and accuracy will be important this week. The last 4 winners (JT, Xander, DJ, JT) can move it with accuracy.
SG: Approach. Due to the angulating greens, approach play will be critical. Guys who are able to use the greens to their advantage the most will have birdie looks all week.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit: 1. Torrey Pines (North), 2. Riviera Country Club, 3. Augusta National
Trending: 1. Dustin Johnson 2. Xander Schauffele 3. Justin Thomas
% Chance to Win (Baseline, Course History, & Fit): 1. Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas
Betting Odds
Bets
With another smaller field, Top 20s and 30s are going to be rare on the card this week. We will look to capitalize on valued Top 10 odds, and throw in a few matchups. Let’s get into it.
Top 10 – Abraham Ancer (+275).
It’s crazy to me that this kid hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR yet. He’s played well on the biggest stages, including a late tee-time Sunday at the Masters. He had 2 runner-up finishes in 2020 (American Express, RBC Heritage), and missed just 1 cut. In his last 5 starts, he as 3 Top 15s – which includes a solo 4th.
Top 10 – Patrick Reed (+110)
This guy loves Kapalua. Winner in 2015, lost in a playoff last year to JT, and has another runner-up back in 2016. He had a recent Top 10 at the Masters, and has the short game to get around this place without making a lot of bogeys.
Top 5 – Justin Thomas (+150)
Due to his history here, recent form, and just about every other category, it’s impossible not to put JT in the conversation when talking about the winner this week. He’s a machine here, with 2 wins in his last 4 appearances. He’s coming off a PNC Championship win with his dad, Mike, and hasn’t finished outside the Top 15 since August (including a 4th at the Masters).
Top 20 – Lanto Griffin (+150)
In a tournament with a small field, this is great value for a Top 20 pick. He played great golf at times last season, including a T7 at the CJ & a T11 at the ZOZO. He played in this tournament last year, where he earned a solo 13th. The value is too good here to pass up, especially when the guy captured a Top 20 last year.
Cover via PGA TOUR
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