Farmers Insurance Open: Betting Predictions and Picks

Ahh, we’re back in San Diego.

Torrey Pines is getting ready to host the 2021 US Open in a few months, but we get an early look at the track this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. The North and South course will be played by the field either Thursday or Friday, then the South takes over for an action packed weekend.

Last year, Marc Leishman shot a final round 65 (-7) and beat out Jon Rahm by a shot. In 2019, Justin Rose out preformed another stacked field and beat Adam Scott by 2 shots. The boys are BACK, so let’s take a look at the field.


After a WD last week (for an unknown reason), Jon Rahm is back at a course where he’s seen A LOT of success. Rahm has a win here, along with a 2nd and T5.

My guy is back. Rory McIlroy is making the LONG trip from Abu Dhabi to San Diego to make his 2021 PGA TOUR debut. He’s coming off a nice start on the Euro Tour, finishing 3rd, and has grabbed Top 5’s in his last 2 starts at this tournament.

Other Big Names: Matty Wolff, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, among others.


North Course

Par 72

7,259 (Scorecard Yardage)

The easier of the two courses, and the guys will have to take advantage of that. In a 2016 redesign, bunkers were taken out and multiple greens were made larger – as these changes were catered to the everyday golfer.

South Course

Par 72

7,802 (Scorecard Yardage)

This thing is a beast. It was redesigned, which not only added 500 yards, but also numerous fairway bunkers. To be honest, the layout is boring. The location is fantastic, but every hole is long, straight, and tight. You may think driver accuracy is needed here, but the narrow fairways effect all players – which is why we see so many bombers win at this place.

Poa greens at both courses.


Thursday: 40% chance of rain, 14 MPH wind.

Friday: 70% chance of rain, 14 MPH wind.

Saturday: 10% chance of rain, 9 MPH, mostly sunny

Sunday: No rain, 10 MPH wind.

Key Stats

Driving Distance. Aside from Sneds in 2016, all recent past champions can move it. And like I said earlier, the narrow fairways at Torrey effect every player in the field – meaning, I’d rather bet on a guy with a wedge in his hand from the rough, than a guy with a 6 or 7 iron.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (South Course): 1. Harding Park GC, 2. Stadium Course, 3. Trump National Doral

Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Xander Schauffele (Last 3 starts: T17, T17, T5), 2. Jon Rahm (T2, T7, T7), 3. Rory McIlory (T17, T5, 3)

% Chance to Win ( Baseline, Course History and Fit): 1. Jon Rahm (13.5%), 2. Rory McIlory (9.3%), 3. Xander Schauffele (6.8%)

Betting Odds

Twilight 9 Card

Top 40 – Talor Gooch (+120)

Of the 14 players in the field this week that have gained over a stroke per round on the South Course (min 12 rounds) Talor Gooch is one of them. He’s coming off a T21 at The American Express, and finished T3 here in 2019. He’s also 13th on TOUR in trending (Data Golf).

Top 10 – Rory McIlroy (+125)

Rory has back to back Top 5’s at this event, and is coming off a T3 in Abu Dhabi. Loves the start of the year. Beginning at the Farmers last year, until the Players was cancelled, his finishes were T3, T5, 5, T5.

Top 40 – Max Homa (+150)

Had a great week at the Stadium Course, minus his Sunday +4. Last year, he finished T9 at this event. Max seems very motivated to take his game to the next level. I think he can bounce back in this spot.

Top 40 – Cameron Davis (+100)

The Aussie is coming off a 3rd place finish at The American Express, and has made the cut in all 3 appearances at this golf tournament (including a Top 40 last year). Although his driving accuracy is horrendous, he ranks 10th on TOUR this season in driving distance.

Top 20 – Matthew Wolff (+175)

Poa is Matty’s favorite putting surface. He can bomb it around Torrey, and after a +4 through 6 start at the AMEX last week, he played the rest of his tournament -12.

Top 20 – Marc Leishman (+175)

Defending Champion. Top 20 in 2017 & Top 10 in 2018. His last start was the Sony Open, where he finished in the Top 5. I like him to keep the vibes going at Torrey.

Outright Winners

Rory (+875). Did you expect me to pick anyone else?

Cover via

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