It’s always tough to get it up for a tournament the week after a major, but Colonial is always a great place to watch some golf. The field for the CSC is pretty decent this week, so let’s get into our preview.
Field
World No. 2 Justin Thomas is fresh off a missed cut at the PGA. He had a birdie look on the 18th to make the weekend, but it just didn’t break enough. His play over Thursday and Friday wasn’t sharp, and couldn’t get anything going. But, at this venue last season, JT finished T10 – so we’ll see if this is a bounce-back spot for him.
Lefty is teeing it up, which is surprising. I figured he’d be 7 bottles of wine deep back home enjoying the fact he just became the oldest major champion in the history of golf, but Phil plays a lot. We’ll see if his form carries over.
Other big names in the field include last year’s champion Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, and Kiz.
Course
Colonial Country Club
Par 70
7,200 yards
Bermuda Fairways, Bent Greens
1936 design
Weather
Key Stats
The only defense this golf course has is narrow fairways, and perfectly placed bunkers. But, over the last few years, technology has put a dent in this golf course’s prestige. Long hitters can blast it over the doglegs, and just have wedges from the rough if they don’t find the fairway.
So if the fairways are gonna be tough to hit for everyone in the field, I’d target guys with good length.
Also, if the wind picks up over the weekend, I’d grab some guys who have solid short games.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit: 1. Brown Deer Park GC, 2. LaCantera GC, 3. TPC Four Seasons Resort
Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Abraham Ancer (Last 3 starts: 5, 2, T8) 2. Jordan Spieth (T9, T3, T30), 3. Brian Harmon (T13, T18, MC)
% Chance to Win: 1. Jordan Spieth (6%), 2. Collin Morikawa (5.3%), 3. Justin Thomas (5%)
Betting Odds
Twilight 9 Best Bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge
We hit a few bets at the PGA – Ab Ancer Top 30, Patrick Reed Top 20 – and were close on a lot more. Had Wallace for a Top 40 which just missed, and Cameron Smith struggled heavily on the weekend and plummeted down the leaderboard.
Let’s have a huge week.
Starting with one of the guys that made us money last week, Patrick Reed. I think this is a golf course Patrick will win at.
The two most important stats around this track are approach and short game, and that’s what Reed does – 21st in SG: ATG, 2nd in Putting.
When he’s made the cut this season, which he’s done 10 out of 14 times, he’s finished no worse than 22nd. His last 2 starts: T6 at Quail Hollow, T17 at the PGA.
Last year at this event, he finished T7.
Top 10 (+210) Fanduel
Abraham Ancer, another guy that won us some money last week, is yet again on the card. We’re riding the hot hand. He’s finished inside the Top 10 3 starts in a row, 2 of those being Top 5s.
Last year at this event, he recorded a Top 15.
He’s 12th on Tour in GIR, so he should have a lot of looks at birdie, his putter will just have to cooperate.
Top 10 (+170) Fanduel
After his 3rd straight Top 10 in Majors, Willy Z is back in his home state.
Like you saw in the graph above from DataGolf, Approach is the most important stat around Colonial – tough to find a better guy in that category than Will, who ranks 2nd on Tour this season in SG: APP. He was 2nd in the field at the PGA in that same category.
Last 2 starts: T17 at the Byron Nelson, T8 at the PGA.
Still looking for his 1st win on Tour, which would give him exemption, something he doesn’t have right now. To do it in Texas would be a nice storyline.
Top 10 (+210) Fanduel
A guy that is going back under everyone’s radar, Corey Connors.
One tough start at the Wells Fargo (T43), and everyone seemed to forget the form he’s in right now. Starting at the Valero: T14, T8 (Masters), T4, T21, T43, and T17 (PGA).
He’s 4th on Tour this season in SG: APP, and inside the Top 10 in both FIR & GIR.
He was T8 here in 2018, and last year finished inside the Top 20.
Top 10 (+210) Fanduel
Charley Hoffman has been on a roll. He has 7 Top 20 finishes in his last 8 starts. So let’s ride the hot hand.
He missed the cut at this event in 2020, but was T13 in 2019, and had a Top 25 in 2017.
This is a ball-strikers golf course, and over his last 24 rounds only 1 player has been better than Charley in SG: APP, Collin Morikawa.
Top 20 (+160) Fanduel
Joaquin Niemann for our last pick.
He went into the final round of the PGA at -2, but would shoot 76 and finish T30. He had a Top 20 at Quail Hollow, and the week before Top 10’d at the Valspar.
He’s 7th this year on Tour in driving distance, while hitting 69.62% of greens which ranks 14th on Tour. I love that combo at Colonial.
Top 20 (+125) Fanduel
Cover via PGATour.com
twilight9.com 