Well, last week was fun. The last major of the season, and the last major of the unreal run we were just on thanks to COVID-19. Now, we’re headed to Minneapolis for the 3M Open.
The field is weak, and the golf course is easy – this makes betting very, very difficult. Anything can happen, so let’s dive in.
Dustin Johnson, fresh off a solid performance at the Open, is teeing it up this week which is a bit of a surprise. I don’t know if he wants more FedEx Cup points, more reps, or just trying to find some form before the playoffs. He opens as the betting favorite at +750.
After another Top 5 in a major, Louis has made the trip over the pond. Even though his performance in majors is what has dominated the headlines for Oosthuizen, his regular Tour stop finishes have been great, too. His last 2 results: T18 at the Memorial, T8 at the Valspar.
Other big names in the field include: Tony Finau, Matty Wolff, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, and Sergio Garcia.
TPC Twin Cities
Fair warning: this golf course sucks. I love Arnold Palmer, but this design is real, real bad. But, with that being said, the condition should be fantastic – it is a TPC course after all.
Defending Champion: Michael Thompson
This was the home of Matthew Wolff’s first PGA Tour win in 2019 in just his 3rd start.
Key Stats and Notes
This area of the country has received a lot of rain over the summer. This means soft greens, which means a lot of birdies. This will be a putting contest.
With all the hazards around this track, you have to find the short grass. Fairways will be a premium. Any fairway found will result in an opportunity for birdie, the guys will need to take advantage of that.
Wolff=Bomber. Thompson=Wedge player. Any style here can win.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit: 1. Nine Bridges, 2. TPC Summerlin, 3. Monterey Peninsula
Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Louis Oosthuizen (Last 3 starts: 2, T42, T3), 2. Hank Lebioda (T5, T4, T8), 3. Lucas Herbert (1, T4, MC)
% Chance to Win (Baseline, Course History & Fit): 1. Louis Oosthuizen (6.3%), 2. Dustin Johnson (5.3%), 3. Patrick Reed (4.8%)
Players to Watch
Although we lost units last week with our position plays, we hit Collin to win. Let’s have another huge week.
The first guy I want to mention is Mav McNealy. We’ve won some money on him a few weeks in a row, and I think he could win this tourney.
He’s entering the week with 4 straight Top 30 finishes, 3 of those being T21 or better. His last start was the John Deere Classic where he finished T18, which could have easily been better but 18 pars on Sunday slid him down the board.
The kid is finding fairways right now, last 3 starts: 73.21%, 76.79%, and 67.86%. His greens in regulation numbers are even better, with his worst number being 70.83% over his last 3 starts.
Over his last 24 rounds, here are his SG numbers…
His proximity numbers over his last 24 aren’t great, but he’s 15th from 150-175. He drives it nearly 300, so he’ll have a lot of approaches from that range around Twin Cities.
+4400 to win.
Hank Lebioda is on FIRE.
His last 3 starts: T5 (Travelers), T4 (Rocket Mortgage), T8 (John Deere Classic). He also finished inside the Top 20 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and Valspar Championship in May.
During this stretch, Hank has hit fairways at a 66.07% clip, but at the John Deere he hit over 71%. He also hit nearly 80% of greens at the JDC.
He’s 13th in overall proximity over his last 24 rounds. He’s 8th from 150-175.
SG numbers over his last 24…
He’s been ROLLING it, and hitting it close. That’s a recipe for a lot of birdies, which he’ll need around TPC Twin Cities.
T34 in 2019, T26 in 2020.
+4700 to win.
Cameron Tringale is playing solid golf.
Last 5 starts: T32, T26 (Memorial), MC (-1 at the Travelers), T14, and T26 (Open).
On the season, he’s 21st in SG: Putting and 44th in Approach. He’s been a great wedge player over his last 24 rounds, ranking 2nd in proximity from 100-125 yards.
Last year at this event, Cameron finished T3.
+3100 to win.
Joel Dahmen struggled during the 4th round of the Open, but entered the day -4. He could be a good target for a Top 40 finish this week.
Joel had 2 solid starts before the last major of the year, with a T21 at the Rocket Mortgage and a T32 at the Memorial. Add a Top 20 at the Wells Fargo and a win during an opposite field event and Dahmen’s had a solid year.
I included a tweet earlier that mentioned this course forced the 2nd most approach shots from 175-200 from 2019-20′ on Tour, only PGA National had more. Dahmen is 2nd from 175-200 in proximity over his last 24 rounds.
He’s struggling with the putter at the moment, outside the Top 200 in SG: Putting over his last 24. But, over that same period, is 27th in scoring opportunities gained. If the flat-stick cooperates at all this week, he’ll contend.
Jhonattan Vegas has finished inside the Top 11 in 3 of his last 5 starts, including the last time he teed it up at the John Deere Classic.
Over his last 24 rounds, Vegas is 2nd in SG: OTT, 4th in Ball-Striking, 20th Tee to Green, and 45th in Approach.
Although the putter is struggling, he’s gained over 3.5 strokes in approach in 3 consecutive starts.
+7500 to win.
Pat Perez has missed 2 of his last 3 cuts, but was in good form before that. Starting at the Valspar, he has 4 Top 30s in 8 starts which includes 2 Top 15s coming recently at the Rocket Mortgage and Palmetto.
His SG numbers over his last 24 are solid: 37th Putting, 62nd Approach, 45th Total.
He’s made an appearance in both playings of this tournament making both cuts, and a Top 25 last year.
His SG: OTT number over his last 24 isn’t great, but over his last 5 starts on average Pat’s hit 73.2% of fairways – that’ll be big around Twin Cities.
+13000 to win
Picks for the 3M Open
Maverick McNealy – Top 30 (+130)
Hank Lebioda – Top 30 (+160)
Joel Dahmen – Top 40 (+125)
Jhonattan Vegas – Top 40 (+125)
Pat Perez – Top 40 (+190)
Cover via ReviewJournal.com