Tournaments following a major usually struggle to provide a solid field. This weeks RSM Classic is an exception. Some of the best players in the world have made the short trip up from Augusta to Sea Island, where the RSM will use 2 courses for the Thursday and Friday rounds.
Seaside Course: Par 70
Plantation Course: Par 72
The courses aren’t difficult, as the only defense is wind. They both play just over 7,000 yards, so the winning score should be pretty damn low, in the -18 to -23 range.
Wedge game and Bermuda putting are the two keys here. When the entire field is going to make a lot of birdies, our targets need to be able to roll the rock.
ODDS: (DraftKings)
Past Winners
Tyler Duncan -2020
Charles Howell III -2019
Austin Cook – 2018
Mackenzie Hughes – 2017
Kevin Kisner – 2016
Webb Simpson (+850) enters the week as the outright favorite. He’s coming off a Top 10 performance at the Masters, after shooting a final round 68. Last year at this event, he lost in a playoff to Tyler Duncan, which was his 2nd runner-up finish at the RSM.
Let’s start with a Top 30 – Kevin Kisner (+150). He had a rough week down at ANGC, as he missed the cut for the first time in his Masters career. Putting that aside, he had a Top 15 at the ZOZO in a loaded field, and seems to play well in this area of the country. He’s a past champion of this event, and with distance off the tee not being a priority this week, I like Kiz to bounce back from the MC.
Top 40 – Mackenzie Hughes (+120). At the CJ and ZOZO, Hughes struggled. But at the Houston Open a few weeks ago, he turned it around with a T7. He is also a past champion of this event, which makes this kind of value for a Top 40 kind of confusing. But I’ll take it.
Top 30 – Joaquin Niemann (+138). I didn’t have him on my card originally, but I’ve decided to add him. He WD from the Masters due to a positive COVID-19 test, which turned me off on the idea of betting him. But after seeing his value for a Top 30, I had to jump on it. His last 3 finishes are all Top 20’s, one of them being a 6th. In his first appearance at this event, he finished T65. But I’ll take his recent form over history.
Top 30 – Brian Harmon (+138). Brian hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 since the Sanderson Farms. His last 4 starts: T13, T28, T26, and T24. He posted a T14 here last year, a T4 in 2017, and has the game that fits this course. If you want to be a bit safer with this one, you can still get him at +100 for a Top 40.
Value Outright Winners
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) – Even with a bunch of high finishes over the last few months for Tommy, he struggled in his appearances state side. But last week in Augusta, he was able to post a Top 20 despite a lousy Sunday (T19). He has yet to win in the United States, which is absurd for a player of Tommy’s caliber. If the wind picks up, his ball-striking ability will be highlighted. Wide fairways will give him room for error off the tee. His putter will have to get hot.
Russell Henley (+2800) – He’s coming off a T29 at the Houston Open, but before that finished Top 5 at the ZOZO and CJ in loaded fields. He’s missed his last few cuts here, but has a Top 10 back in 2016. He’s going to give himself a lot of chances at birdie, ranking 10th in GIR (Greens in Regulation). He also ranks 15th in FIR, which is critical this week.
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