We’re back at Pebble. Ah, that sounds fantastic every time I get to say it. This year, however, is going to be different. Due to COVID-19, there will be no amateurs in the field – which may be a good thing. The TOUR can set up Pebble to be a bit more challenging, and rounds won’t take 6 hours to finish up. On top of that, the normal 3 course rotation is being cut down to 2 – making it a 36 hole cut.
Spyglass is the other course in rotation this week, and it’s a beauty. The field is loaded, minus an unexpected WD from World No.1 Dustin Johnson fresh off a win on the European Tour last week. Let’s see who else made the trip to Monetary.
Field
Lefty is back on TOUR this week, and will look to win this event for the 6th time. Jordan Spieth showed signs of his old self in Phoenix this past weekend, and returns to Pebble where he has won before. Another recent winner on the Euro Tour Paul Casey will also make the start.
The rest of the field includes Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, and Jason Day.
Courses
Pebble Beach
Par 72
7,051 yards
Jack Neville/Douglas Grant, 1919 Design
Poa Greens
Spyglass
Par 72
7,041 yards
Robert Trent Jones, 1966
Poa Greens
Weather
Thursday: Scattered Showers, 50% chance of rain, 7 MPH winds, 59 degrees
Friday: Partly Cloudy, 20% chance of rain, 12 MPH winds, 58 degrees
Saturday: Showers, 50% chance of rain, 12 MPH winds, 57 degrees
Sunday: Scattered Showers, 30% chance of rain, 17 MPH winds, 57 degrees
Key Stats
SG: Approach
With the smaller greens at Pebble, you need to strike the ball very well. Add on the projected weather to that, we’re going to be looking at fantastic iron players this week.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit: 1. Medinah Country Club, 2. Shadow Creek Golf Club, 3. Olympia Fields Country Club
Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Patrick Cantlay (Last 3 starts: T17, T13, 2), 2. Paul Casey (T8, 1, T12), 3. Daniel Berger (10, T7, MC)
% Chance to Win (Baseline, Course History & Fit): 1. Patrick Cantlay (12.1%), 2. Daniel Berger (5.7%), 3. Jason Day (5.2%)
Betting Odds
Twilight 9 Card
Top 20 – Max Homa (+164)
Hurt us last week, but we’re going back to him. Max Homa. He’s coming off a week where he ranked 3rd in SG: approach in a loaded field. He mentioned on Twitter that he just needs to get his putter going. I think he can bounce back with the flat stick this week, as he’s back on his preferred outing surface, Poa. T14 here in 2020, T10 in 2019.
Top 30 – Kyle Stanley (+188)
With a limited amount of big names in the field, all value goes down for the guys further down the board. So we have to find it. Kyle Gained 4 Strokes on Approach at Torrey Pines, and last week gained 5.2 in Phoenix. Stanley’s last 3 starts: T32, T18, T36. He’s 13th on TOUR this season in SG: Approach, and 24th in GIR.
Top 30 – Peter Malnati (+125)
His last start was a T10 at the Farmers. At the Sony, he finished T14. He’s ranked 34th on TOUR this season in SG: Approach. Even though he hasn’t had extreme success at this tournament , last year he finished T11.
Top 20 – Kevin Streelman (+163)
This is a guy that hits a bunch of fairways, and a bunch of greens. He’s one of the shortest guys on TOUR when it comes to driving distance, but with Pebble being one of the shortest courses on the schedule, that doesn’t matter here. Since 2016, Kevin hasn’t finished outside the Top 20: 2016-T17, 2017-T14, 2018-6th, 2019-T7, 2020-2nd. He finished T22 last week in Phoenix with a much stronger field.
Top 20 – Francesco Molinari (+125)
The Italian has found some form. In his last 4 starts on the PGA TOUR he has 3 Top 20s, 2 of them being Top 10s – most recently a T8 at the American Express & T10 at the Farmers. He hasn’t played in the AT&T Pro-Am recently, but he when the US Open was at Pebble in 2019, he finished T16.
Top Canadian – Nick Taylor (+138)
He’s the defending champion of the event, and has other solid starts at Pebble Beach. Since 2016, aside from a missed cut in 2018, he hasn’t finished outside the Top 30. The other options aren’t great – one hasn’t made the cut here since 2016 and has only made the cut once in his last 5 starts, one has never made the cut here, and the other has missed 5 cuts in a row. Taylor has a recent Top 15 at the Sony.
Winners
Jason Day (+2000)
He has missed his last 2 cuts, but that can be entirely blamed on his putter. Last week in Phoenix, he lost 2.6 strokes to the field on the greens. He has 5 Top 10s in his last 6 appearances here, and finally gets back to a putting surface that he really likes, Poa. If he gets the flat stick going at all, watch out for the Aussie.
Cover via PGATOUR.com
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