Our winning streak came to an end in LA, but let’s put that behind us.
Due to multiple reasons, the PGA TOUR moved the WGC Mexico to Florida, and now the boys will be teeing it up at Concession. It’s an unknown venue, as it hasn’t been featured on the PGA TOUR until now, which will make betting this tournament a bit tricky.
The field is absolutely stacked, so let’s dive in…
Field
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson enters the week as the favorite, as he should. He played a disappointing final round at Riviera, but was still able to finish inside the Top 10. Jon Rahm, unlike DJ, played a great final round at the Genesis, carding a -5, 66. He’ll be looking to carry that form into this week, and give himself a chance to win after a long stretch of high finishes.
Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are back after failing to make the cut in LA. We’ve seen both of these guys bounce back in a big way after missing a cut, so we’ll see if that happens again this week.
Other big names in the field include Xander Schauffele, Tyrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Brooks Koepka, and Tony Finau. 48 of the Top 50 players in the world are here (Tiger Woods and Paul Casey are absent).
Course
The Concession Golf Club
Par 72
7,470 yards
Jack Nicklaus Design (Tony Larkin Collaboration). Opened in 2006.
Bermuda Greens*
From the back boxes, this course is one of the hardest in the United States. The fairways are generous, and although there is water on the property, it shouldn’t come into play much for the TOUR guys. The greens are very angulating, and at some points it gets ridiculous.
There are multiple courses that Concession should play like, for example, Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and PGA National. Angulating greens, tightly mown run off areas highlight just a few comparisons.
*Although the greens are Bermuda, they don’t roll like Bermuda. They are cut and rolled everyday, which takes most of the grain out of them. Due to this, they will play more like Poa and Bentgrass greens.
Weather
Key Stats
SG: Approach
With angulating greens, the ability to hit certain spots on the putting surface is crucial. It won’t be about just finding greens in regulation, it will be about finding makable putts.
Short Game
Concession has tricky greens, as well as difficult areas around those greens. Getting up and down will be tough, so having a solid short game will be important.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit: NA, but I mentioned a few above.
Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Dustin Johnson (Last 3 starts: T11, 1, T8), 2. Tony Finau (T2, 2, 2), 3. Patrick Cantlay (2, T3, T15)
% Chance to Win (Baseline, Course History and Fit): 1. Jon Rahm (9.8%), 2. Dustin Johnson (9.5%), 3. Xander Schauffele (6.2%)
Betting Odds
Twilight 9 Card
There are 177 players with 20+ rounds on the PGA TOUR in Florida over the last 5 seasons, only one guy is gaining 2+ strokes tee-to-green per round. Sungjae Im. And that’s where we start.
Top 20 – Sungjae Im (+138)
Since the beginning of 2021, he has 3 Top 20 finishes, and a T32 at the Farmers (his last start was a T17 at the Waste Management). He’s 19th in driving accuracy & 26th in greens in regulation. He finished T2 at the Masters (shows a nice finish at a course comparison). His finishes last year in Florida were a win at the Honda (another course that plays like Concession according to multiple sources), and a solo 3rd at the Arnold Palmer. If you go back to 2019, he had a T3 at Bay Hill, and a T4 at the Valspar in Tampa.
Top 20 – Max Homa (+150)
I don’t think he was originally in the field, but now he is. Our guy HAS to be on the card following a win at the Genesis. Recent FL finishes include: 2020 – T24 at the Arnold Palmer, 2019 – T20 at the Honda. Coming off a round (and week) where he put on a ball-striking clinic. His short game was also good last week, ranking 9th in SG: Around the Green. Being able to get up and down this week around these angulating greens is going to be crucial.
Top 20 – Tommy Fleetwood (+150)
He is still searching for his first PGA Tour win. He hasn’t made a start state-side this year, but has made 4 on the Euro Tour since the Masters. In order his finishes were: T10, T7, T17, T26. Since 2018 he has 6 starts in FL, finishes include a T4 at the Honda (2018), T26 at the API(2018), T3 at the API (2019), T5 at the Players (2019), T3 at the Honda (2020).
Top 10 – Tony Finau (+175)
We say it every single week, but it just has to happen for Tony at some point, right? His last 3 starts on the PGA TOUR are Top 5s, and his last 3 starts worldwide are all runner-ups. Last week at the Genesis he was 4th in SG: Approach, and 23rd around the greens. He has no recent history at PGA National, but in 2019 and 2018, he had Top 10 finishes at the Masters. We just have to keep betting him until he gives us a reason not to.
Top 10 – Xander Schauffele (+138)
Like Tony, it just has to happen at some point for Xander. Starting at the US Open, Schauffele has made 8 starts, and has only finished outside the Top 5, 3 times (all 3 of those are Top 20s). He’s 1st in SG: Total this season.
Top 20 – Matthew Fitzpatrick (+150)
Last week was Matthew’s first start on the PGA TOUR in 2021, and he grabbed a T5. For the week, he ranked 3rd in SG: Around the Green, 27th in Approach, and 22nd on the greens. A few weeks before the Genesis Fitz made a start in Dubai on the Euro Tour, and finished inside the Top 20. The greens at Concession are incredibly tricky, so his insane short game and good putter could be a difference maker. Over the past 100 rounds, he’s the best Bermuda putter in the field. When the course is more difficult, Matthew plays better.
Value Picks
Top 10 – Viktor Hovland (+225)
Last week stats…7th SG: tee to green, 1st in scrambling. His last 4 starts on the PGA Tour include a win, a T2, and a T5 last week at the Genesis. Solo 3rd last year at the Workday (played at Muirfield). Starting at the US Open at Winged Foot, he’s made 8 starts on the PGA TOUR – only twice has he not finished inside the Top 20.
Winner
Jon Rahm (+850)
Since the start of 2021, Rahm has finished outside the Top 10 once (T13 at the WMPO). He won the Memorial last season (Muirfield Village), and has back to back Top 10s at the Masters.
Sungjae Im (+4000)
For all the reasons I gave earlier, the dude just loves Florida golf. His win at the Honda last season is huge when trying to gage his chances at this golf course. And again, this dude loves Florida.
Cover via Sportinglife.com
twilight9.com 