In the last month, our bets have not been hitting. Only 2 bets hit at the PLAYERS. But – one was the winner. LET’S GO. Always great to capitalize on a +2000 win, but now it’s time to focus on the Honda.
We’ve been spoiled with tremendous finishes over the last 6 weeks, so hopefully that happens again – but this week’s field is by far weaker than the last month. Let’s dive in.
Field
Sungjae Im is back as the defending champion, and is in good form – only 1 finish outside the Top 30 since the American Express (T32 at the Farmers).
The rest of the field isn’t the best, but joining Im will be Niemann, Westwood, Berger, Scott, Woodland, and Lowry.
Course
PGA National
Par 70
7,100 yards
Bermuda Greens
The course is most famous for the 3-hole stretch late in the back 9 called “The Bear Trap”. Of course named after the course designer himself, Jack Nicklaus, the Bear Trap features 2 Par 3s and a Par 4 with water in play on every shot.
Weather
Key Stats
Greens in Regulation.
On TOUR last season, this golf course ranked 3rd most difficult to find the green in regulation. Iron play is critical each and every week, but especially when plotting your way around PGA National.
Around the Green.
When golfers miss the green at this course, the fail to get up and down 42% of the time, which ranks 14th hardest on TOUR. This again puts an emphasis on iron play, but the guys who show up with their short game will certainly gain strokes on the field.
Data Golf
Course Fit: 1. Grand Reserve Country Club, 2. TPC Louisiana, 3. TPC Summerlin
Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Daniel Berger (Last 3 starts: 1, T35, T9), 2. Joaquin Niemann (T43, T28, T29), 3. Sungjae Im (T28, T21, T17)
% Chance to Win (Baseline, Course History & Fit): 1.Daniel Berger (8.4%), 2. Sungjae Im (5.3%), 3. Joaquin Niemann (4.5%)
Betting Odds
Twilight 9 Best Bets
Was 1-6 on our bets last week, but cashing in +2000 on Justin Thomas makes all the bad feelings go away. Let’s mess around and try to pick the winner for the 3rd time in the last 5 tournaments.
Top 30 – J.T Poston (+175)
He missed the cut at his first 2 events of 2021, since then however, he’s made all but 1, and has 3 Top 25 finishes (T18 at the Farmers, T11 at the Waste Management, T22 at THE PLAYERS). His SG: Tee to Green number this season is terrible, ranking 160th of TOUR, but he’s 6th in SG: Putting. Last year, the greens at PGA National were the 10th easiest on TOUR. So, in theory, combine a fantastic putter & easy greens, Poston should ROLL it this week. He’s made the cut at all his appearances at the Honda, with finishes of T35, T36, and T27. Started the PLAYERS with a 76, then went 68, 69, 70.
Top 10 – Sungjae Im (+164)
He’s the defending champion. He loves Florida. Since 2018, in 9 starts, he has 4 Top 5 finishes in the sunshine state. While his iron play struggled at THE PLAYERS, he was 2nd in SG: Off the Tee, and 7th in SG: Putting. His ball-striking is fantastic, so if his iron play comes back a bit this week, he could make a run again. He has improved his finish 3 weeks in a row – T28, T21, and T17.
Top – 10 Joaquin Niemann (+175)
His 2021 started with back to back runner up finishes, which included a playoff loss to Harris English at the Sony. His last 2 starts are Top 30s at the WGC and PLAYERS. He’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR, is 10th in GIR, and 13th in SG: Tee to Green. Loves tough conditions, and when the wind picks up his low ball flight is exactly what you want. In a weak field, I expect him to rise to the top.
Top 20 – Russell Henley (+163)
He has improved his finish here the last 3 years. T24 in 2018, T20 in 2019, T8 in 2020. He’s always one of the best iron players on TOUR, and he is again this year, ranking 6th in SG: Approach. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, but each of the last 2 years, Russell had a MC 2 weeks before the Honda and his finishes have been great. Of the players in this field, he’s one of 13 who have gained at least a stroke per round at PGA National.
Top 20 – Shane Lowry (+163)
He finished solo 8th at THE PLAYERS, and was 24th in SG: Approach. On the year, he’s 34th SG: Tee to Green, but 148th SG: Putting. Again, with easier greens at PGA National, it should be a better week on the greens for Shane. Last year, he placed T21 here. If the wind picks up in Florida this weekend, the irishman is always good to bet on.
Top 30 – Brendan Steele (+125)
Steele has been playing incredibly solid since the start of 2021. He’s only finished outside the Top 40 twice, has made every cut, and had a Top 5 at the Sony. More recently, he finished Top 20 at the Arnold Palmer. He had a Top 15 at this event back in 2017, and finished T4 last year. On the year, he’s 50th SG: Tee to Green, but has struggled on the greens. If he can turn on the putter a bit, I think his solid season will continue.
Top 40 – Jim Furyk (+125)
The old man is still rolling. He’s made all 3 cuts so far in 2021, was T21 at Pebble and finished Top 30 at the Genesis in tough conditions with a loaded field. He’s 4th in FIR %, and 2nd in GIR % this year on TOUR. He missed the cut last year at the Honda due to a Thursday 78, but finished Top 10 in 2019.
Winner Picks
Figured I add this section, as we’ve picked 2 of the last 4 winner on TOUR on the podcast.
J.T Poston (+7000)
Joaquin Niemann (+1300)
Cover via GOLF.com (Getty Images)
twilight9.com 