WGC Dell Match Play: Betting Analysis, Predictions, and Picks!

Well, the Honda sucked. I mean awesome for Matt Jones, who earned his way into the Masters. But the field was the worst of 2021, and nothing noteworthy happened all weekend. So let’s move on.

The WGC Match Play is one of the more entertaining tournaments of the year. The best players in the world get the unique opportunity to throw the scorecard away (kinda) and focus on beating the one guy that’s in front of him. Many of the same gritty, grinding, players rise to the top year in and year out (ex. Kevin Kisner, the match play assassin).


64 players are in Austin this week, including the biggest names in the sport. Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Bryson, Xander, and on, and on, and on.

We’re missing Tiger (for obvious reasons), and Brooks, who had surgery on his right knee on the 16th.


Austin Country Club

Par 71

7,182 yards

Bermuda Greens

Pete Dye design. 1984.

The greens around this track are smaller than TOUR average, and several holes on the course are based on risk/reward. This concept makes ACC a perfect venue for a match play event.


Key Stats

Instead at looking at categories we highlight every week, let’s look at a few things winners do well here.

Approach from 100-150. You need to capitalize on wedge opportunities when you get them. This course isn’t long by any stretch, so really having your wedges dialed in is going to be huge. A look at the past winners – Kiz, great short iron player, and DJ, a guy who has dedicated the last 5 years to his wedge game.

Putting. To win matches in this format, you are going to need to rely on your putter a few times. A hot putter can be the difference between losing your group, or moving on to the next round.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit: 1. Harding Park CC, 2. Atunyote GC, 3. Country Club of Jackson

Trending (of the players in the field): 1. Paul Casey (Last 3 Starts: T5, T10, T5), 2. Tony Finau (2, 14, MC), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (T22, 1, T3)

% Chance to Win: 1. Jon Rahm (6.6%), 2. Dustin Johnson (4.4%), 3. Justin Thomas (4.4%)

Betting Odds

Twilight 9 Best Bets

We had a winning week down in Florida at the Honda Classic, up .52 units. Doesn’t sound great, but I’ll take anything in the green. Let’s keep it rolling down in Austin.

Group 16 Winner – Sungjae Im (+170)

Sungjae hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 since the Farmers Insurance, and has improved his finishing position at 4 straight tournaments. Last week at the Honda, even though it was in a weaker field, Im placed T8. He’s, by far, the most talented player in his group (Leishman, Henley, and Victor Perez). If he gets hot with the flat-stick, he’s going to make A LOT of birdies, and that always plays in match play. I’ll take the high seed in this group.

Group 15 Winner – Jordan Spieth (+188)

He’s the lowest ranked player in this group, but he’s the betting favorite. That says a lot. Since missing the cut at the Farmers, Jordan has been on a great run of golf – 3 Top 5 finishes (most recently the API). He’s played in match play formats before at both the Ryder Cup and President’s Cup, so that experience should go a long way. He’s a fantastic wedge player, which you need around this track, and if his putter get’s hot, he could make a run through this bracket. Also, Texas kid, so a little bit of a home game.

Group 12 Winner – Will Zalatoris (+260)

He’s in a group with Tony Finau, who a month ago looked like the best player in the world, seemingly never finishing outside of the Top 5. But at THE PLAYERS, Tony looked bad, real bad. Will on the other hand, has finished outside the Top 25 just once since the start of 2021. He’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR, ranking 4th in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green. He can struggle on the greens, but if that putter ranks even somewhere in the middle of the field, this kid will make some noise.

Group 6 Winner – Jason Day (+250)

Again, this is a guy that is in the same group as a powerhouse, Xander Schauffele. Xander is another player that was on an unreal run of finishes, but never got a win. But the last few times we saw him, he struggled. JDay has been solid for a few months. He has 4 straight made cuts, a Top 10, and a Top 20. Although his finish at the API was outside the Top 30, he played much better than that – a Sunday 79 was at fault for his fall down the leaderboard. He’s a past champion of this event, he won back in 2016, the first year the WGC Match Play was hosted at Austin Country Club. I’ll take the Aussie in this group.

Group 13 Winner – Abraham Ancer (+225)

Ancer, more than likely, will have to beat Hovland to win this group, as I don’t see the other 2 guys competing. Hovland had a great week at Concession, but his last 2 starts have been battles (including a MC at THE PLAYERS). Ancer was a monster for the International team at the Presidents Cup back in 2019, so that experience will help in Austin. He missed the cut at the Genesis, but his last 2 starts are Top 25s (T18 at Concession, T22 at THE PLAYERS). The putter will have to heat up, but I like Ancer coming out of this group.

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